Seminário: Downscaling of ocean climate projections for the Arabian Gulf

09/10/2015 - 14:00
Auditório 1 do IAG (Rua do Matão, 1226, Cidade Universitária)
O seminário do Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas do IAG será apresentado pela Dra. Ilana Wainer (Departamento de Oceanografia Física – IO/USP).
Downscaling of ocean climate projections for the Arabian Gulf
The goal of this study is to develop projections of regional climate for the Arabian Gulf (AG) at fine spatial and temporal scales. To achieve this, a Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) was used to dynamically downscale the climate of the AG using ground truth data to evaluate the model.  An Earth System Model (ESM) is used to force ocean boundaries and Atmospheric fluxes (The Max Planck Institute ESM), hereafter  MPI-MR. The final results show what global climate change likely means for the AG waters regarding main ocean properties, like sea surface temperature, salinity, sea level height, and currents up through the year 2100, from the  “business as usual” RCP8.5 scenario. Pondering the natural limitations from the ESM results and the downscaling process, the results are expected to lighten the likely climate changes effect on the Gulf ocean dynamics. There is also confidence that these results have created a baseline to insight new experiments, concerning the gulf dynamics, to quantify and increase the accuracy of the carbon related warming effects as well as the local anthropogenic changes on the salinity generation processes. The results from the experiments will be available to be used in support of climate change impact research planning in the marine environment throughout the Gulf.