Seminário: ENSO modulation of MJO teleconnections to the North Atlantic and Europe

09/12/2019 - 13:00
Auditório Prof. Dr. Paulo Benevides Soares (Rua do Matão, 1226, Cidade Universitária)

O seminário do Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas será apresentado pelo Dr. Robert W. Lee (National Centre for Atmospheric Science - University of Reading, UK).

Sobre o palestrante:
Dr Robert Lee is a Research Scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and University of Reading, UK. Previously, Robert has been a Visiting Scientist at the University of Oxford and worked at the UK Met Office, Exeter. Robert obtained a Ph.D. in Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate from the University of Reading in 2015, and prior to that, obtained a Masters of Meteorology M.Met. degree from the University of Reading and University of Oklahoma, USA. Robert’s research background is in dynamical meteorology covering timescales from subseasonal to long-term climate projections. He has extensive experience in analysing and seeking a process-based understanding of large atmospheric multi-model datasets.
The teleconnection from the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) provides a source of subseasonal variability and predictability to the North Atlantic-European (NAE) region. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates the seasonal mean state, through which the MJO and its teleconnection pattern propagates; however, its impact on this teleconnection to the NAE region has not been investigated. In this talk we present evidence of a robust dependence of the teleconnections from the MJO to NAE weather regimes on the phase of ENSO. We demonstrate that the MJO to NAO+ regime tropospheric teleconnection is strongly enhanced during El Niño years, via enhanced Rossby wave activity, and suppressed during La Niña. Conversely the MJO to NAO− regime stratospheric teleconnection is enhanced during La Niña years, and suppressed during El Niño. This dependence on the background state has strong implications for subseasonal predictability, including interannual variations in subseasonal predictive skill.
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