Contrasting Southern Hemisphere Monsoon Response: MidHolocene Orbital Forcing versus Future Greenhouse Gas–Induced Global WarmingAbstract

 

Programa: 
meteorologia
Primeiro Autor: 
Roberta D’Agostino
Ano de Publicação: 
2020
Nome da Revista/Jornal: 
Journal of Climate
Tipo de publicação: 
Artigo publicado em Revista
localidade: 
Publicação Internacional
TítuloContrasting Southern Hemisphere Monsoon Response: MidHolocene Orbital Forcing versus Future Greenhouse Gas–Induced Global WarmingAbstract
Tipo da publicaçãoJournal Article
Ano de Publicação2020
AutoresD’Agostino R, Brown JR, Moise A, Nguyen H, Silva Dias PL, Jungclaus J
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume33
Issue22
Paginação9595 - 9613
Data de Publicação11/2020
Type of ArticleClimatology of hail in the triple border Paraná, Santa Catarina (Brazil) and Argentina
ISSN1520-0442
Resumo

Past changes of Southern Hemisphere (SH) monsoons are less investigated than their northern counterpart because of relatively scarce paleodata. In addition, projections of SH monsoons are less robust than in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we use an energetic framework to shed lights on the mechanisms determining SH monsoonal response to external forcing: precession change at the mid-Holocene versus future greenhouse gas increase (RCP8.5). Mechanisms explaining the monsoon response are investigated by decomposing the moisture budget in thermodynamic and dynamic components. SH monsoons weaken and contract in the multimodel mean of midHolocene simulations as a result of decreased net energy input and weakening of the dynamic component. In contrast, SH monsoons strengthen and expand in the RCP8.5 multimodel mean, as a result of increased net energy input and strengthening of the thermodynamic component. However, important regional differences on monsoonal precipitation emerge from the local response of Hadley and Walker circulations. In the midHolocene, the combined effect of Walker–Hadley changes explains the land–ocean precipitation contrast. Conversely, the increased local gross moist stability explains the increased local precipitation and net energy input under circulation weakening in RCP8.5

URLhttps://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/22/jcliD190672.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0672.1