Future changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approach

 

Programa: 
meteorologia
Primeiro Autor: 
Michelle Simões Reboita
Ano de Publicação: 
2020
Nome da Revista/Jornal: 
Climate Dynamics
Tipo de publicação: 
Artigo publicado em Revista
localidade: 
Publicação Internacional
TítuloFuture changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approach
Tipo da publicaçãoJournal Article
Ano de Publicação2020
AutoresReboita MS, Reale M, da Rocha RP, Giorgi F, Giuliani G, Coppola E, Nino RBL, Llopart M, Torres JA, Cavazos T
JournalClimate Dynamics
Issue1
Paginação1 a 17
Data de Publicação06/2020
ISSN0930-7575
Resumo

Changes in the characteristics of austral winter (June–July–August) synoptic activity in three domains (Africa, Australia and South America) of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere projected with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) are presented. The model is nested in three global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The model grid spacing is 25 km and the simulations cover the period 1970–2100. Synoptic activity is analyzed using both Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches. The Eulerian analysis shows an increase of the synoptic activity south of 40° S in the RegCM4 and GCMs ensembles for the future (2080–2099) compared to the present (1995–2014), but this signal does not necessarily indicate an increase in the cyclone frequency since it includes cyclonic and anticyclonic features. The Lagrangian analysis, however, indicates a decrease in the frequency of cyclones, with a positive tendency towards stronger systems, although the latter is not statistically significant at 95% confidence level. Lifetime, traveled distance and mean speed of the cyclones do not present statistically significant changes in the future climate. On the other hand, a significant increase in both intensity and extension of areas affected by precipitation associated with cyclones is found. As a consequence, there is a statistically significant trend of individual cyclones to produce more rainfall in the future.

URLhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-020-05317-z
DOI10.1007/s00382-020-05317-z
Short TitleClim Dyn