Seminário do Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas
Title: Doing usable climate risk science in academia
Presentantion: Dr. Adam H. Sobel (Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States)
Abstract
Information on climate risk is increasingly needed for adaptation. The information produced by traditional climate science, as practiced in academia and governments, is generally not quite fit for the purpose, having been generated for some combination of scientific understanding and support of mitigation policy. For adaptation, an additional layer of science is needed on top of (for example) CMIP model output: downscaling, bias correction, uncertainty quantification, impact modeling, and decision support. This additional “climate risk science” (so called here because of the importance of extremes and the inherently probabilistic nature of the information) has been practiced in academia and government, but not in an organized way; the intercomparison and standards that are familiar in other parts of climate science are largely absent here. The private sector has leapt in to fill the gap, but its products are generally expensive, proprietary, and in many cases opaque. The result is a “wild west” situation in which many potential or actual users of the information are confused and adaptation is inhibited. I will argue for a more organized effort to develop usable climate risk science, especially for public sector applications, in academia and government. A few recent research results on hurricane risk under climate change will be used to illustrate specific points.
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